[WSJ] 경제전망_Subprime Mortgage Woes Are Likely to..

Subprime Mortgage Woes Are Likely to Spread

 

Forecasts for Home-Sale Prices Are Trimmed
But Economists SayU.S.Can Avoid Recession

By PHIL IZZO
March 16, 2007

 

Most economic forecasters in a new WSJ.com survey believe recent turmoil in the subprime mortgage market is likely to spread to the broader mortgage market and they expect a widely followed index of home prices to fall this year. But they still think theU.S.will avoid a recession and even a significant rise in unemployment.

WJS의 서베이 결과 대부분의 경제전문가들은subprime모기지 시장의 혼란이 전체 모기지 시장으로 확대될 것으로 전망.또한 금년중 주택가격 지표의 전반적인 하락이 있을 것으로 예상.그러나 미국은 경기침체나 실업률 급증을 겪진 않을 것으로 전망

 

"The markets may have over-reacted," said John Lonski of Moody's Investors Service. "Only businesses significantly exposed to subprime will be hurt. Mortgage repayment problems aren't as widespread as we are led to believe. If most people were having trouble paying the mortgage, it would lead to declining consumer confidence and we haven't seen that."

무디스의John Lonski는”시장이 과잉반응을 하고 있다. Subprime모기지 위험에 크게 노출된 기업들 만이 피해를 입을 것이다.모기지 반환(repayment)문제는 생각만큼 널리 퍼져있지 않다.만약 대부분의 사람들이 모기지 상환에 곤란을 겪고 있다면 이는 소비자 신뢰지수의 하락으로 나타나야 하는데 아직 그런 모습이 보이지 않고 있다”고 주장.

 

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Of the 60 economists surveyed, 32 said it is either "very" or "somewhat" likely that the intense and speedy unraveling of the market for subprime mortgages -- home loans made to people with poor credit histories – will spill over to the rest of the mortgage market. But 26 said that's not likely. Two didn't respond.

설문에 응답한60명의 전문가 중32명이subprime시장의 문제가 전체 모기지 시장으로 확산될 것이라고 응답.반면26명은 그렇지 않을 것으로 전망

 

The woes of the subprime mortgage market are the latest chapter in deterioration of the housing market. Concerns about the sector and the ripple effects on the economy have been blamed for gyrations in the stock market the past week, including a 2% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Tuesday.

subprime모기지 시장의 혼란은 주택경기 둔화와 관련된 가장 최근의 현상임.특히 동 부문의 혼란의 연쇄효과에 대한 우려가 지난주 주식시장 폭락의 주 원인이 된 것으로 보임

 

But just 22% said difficulties in the subprime market have caused them to downgrade their economic forecasts and, by a 4-to-1 margin, they agreed with the statement that "the worst of the housing bust is behind us."

그러나 응답자의22%만이 이번 사태로 인해 향후 성장전망을 낮췄다고 응답했으며,4:1의 비율로“주택경기 저점이 지나갔다”는데 동의.

 

The economists slightly reduced their forecasts for the economy this quarter but still expect moderate growth all year, at around a 2.3% rate this quarter, increasing to 3% by year-end – with unemployment rising just a bit. They put the odds of recession in the next 12 months at about 25%, slightly less than former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's odds of about 33%. The survey was conducted March 9-13.

전문가들은 이번 분기 경제성장 전망을 소폭 하향수정.그러나 여전히2.3%내외의 완만한 성장을 예상하고 연말에는3%대로 상승할 것으로 전망.실업률은 소폭 상승에 그칠 전망.이들은 향후12개월 안에 경기침체가 발생할 확률을 약25%로 봄.이는 그린스펀 의장의33%보다 소폭 낮은 수준.

 

The economists are markedly more optimistic – both about theU.S.economy and about the stock market -- than the public is, as measured in a recent WSJ/NBC News poll.

최근NBC/WSJ여론 조사에 나타난 일반인들의 전망에 비해 전문가들의 전망은 매우 낙관적

 

But, as is often the case, there is disagreement among the economists about the risks that the subprime market poses to the overallU.S.economy.

그러나 언제나처럼suprime모기지 시장의 위험이 경제 전체로 확산될 가능성에 대해서는전문가들 간에 큰 의견차가 존재

 

"Mortgage credit-quality problems go well beyond the subprime sector," wrote Jan Hatzius, chiefU.S.economist at Goldman Sachs inNew York, in a research note. "The underlying problem is not the subprime market per se, but the reset of large quantities of adjustable-rate debt -- some of which is classified as subprime some as prime -- to higher interest rates in an environment of flat or falling house prices in most of theUnited States."

골드만삭스의Jan Hatzius는“모기지 신용 하락 문제는subprime부문에 국한되지 않을 것.근본적인 문제는subprime에 국한된 것이 아니라 대규모의 변동금리채권 금리 재설정이 기다리고 있다는 것.변동금리채 중 일부는subprime으로 일부는prime으로 분류되어 있음.

 

Mr. Hatzius notes that the so-called teaser rate, or low initial rate on adjustable-rate mortgages, expires sooner for subprime mortgages. This implies that mortgage-holders with prime ARMs may come to experience the same woes currently making waves in the subprime sector.

Mr. Hatziousm는 변동금리모기지의 초기 유인금리(teaser rate)가subprime모기지의 경우 훨씬 더 빨리 재설정됨을 지적했다.이는prime ARM으로 집을 산 경우에도 지금subprime시장에서 겪은 혼란을 결국 겪을 수 밖에 없음을 의미한다.

 

The extent of any spillover from subprime to the broader housing market remains unclear. "You can tell a lot of scary stories," said Richard DeKaser of National City Corp., "but they're not broadly accurate. We're still talking about a small segment of the nation's homes that are affected." According to theAmerican Housing Surveyfor 2005, the most recent date for which data are available, 33% of all homes are owned outright and 57% have traditional mortgages, leaving just 10% potentially affected by ARM woes.

subprime시장의 혼란이 전반적인 주택시장으로 확산될 것인지 여부는 아직 불투명. National City Corp.의Richard DeKaser는“불길한 예상은 무수히 만들 수 있음.그러나 영향을 받는 부분은 전체 주택중 소수에 지나지 않아”라고 주장.American Housing Surveyfor 2005에 따르면33%의 주택은 주택담보 대출이 남아있지 않고, 57%는 전통적인 모기지를 이용했으며,단10정도만이ARM을 이용한 것으로 나타남.

 

The subprime concerns are also likely to weigh on prices, according to Mr. Lonski. "Home sellers will be forced to accept lower prices in the spring. The subprime issue reinforces that home prices would be subject to price recession, creating an expectation of lower prices among buyers."

Subprime모기지 우려는 가격에도 영향을 미칠 것. Lonski에 따르면 판매자들은 봄이 되면 가격 인하 압력을 더욱 거세가 받을 것으로 평가.지금의subprime사태가 가격 하락 압력을 가하여 구매자들에게 가격이 더 떨어질 것이라는 전망을 형성시킬 것.

 

Economists' expectations for home prices dropped from the previous survey. On average, they see a 0.77% decline in prices, measured by the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight index, in 2007, compared with their forecast in a survey last month for a 0.44% decline. Of the 55 economists who answered the question, 34 predicted prices will be flat or will decline. The index, which tracks price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties, has never posted a year-to-year decline.

전문가들의 주택가격 전망도 하락.설문에 참여한 전문가들은 평균적으로2007년중OFHEO기준 주택가격이0.77%하락할 것으로 전망.이는 지난달0.44%보다 악화. 55명의 응답자 중34명이 주택가격이 정체되거나 하락할 것으로 봄.

 

The economists were split on whether regulators should have acted sooner in the subprime mortgage market. Twenty-eight of the respondents said "yes," while 24 said "no." Robert DiClemente of Citigroup contended that the problem wasn't centered on regulated institutions.

But some economists put part of the blame on the Federal Reserve. "Was it necessary to cut the fed funds rate to 1%, supercharging the housing recovery?" said Mr. Lonski. The June 2003 move, which ended a three-year cycle of rate cuts, was aimed at fostering economic growth and contributed to continued low mortgage rates.

규제당국이 모기지시장에 더 일찍 개입했어야 하는가에 대한 질문에는 응답자들의 견해가 엇갈림.응답자 중28명은“yes”, 24명은“no”라고 응답. Citigroup의DiClemente는 규제를 받는 기관들에만 문제가 집중된 것이 아니라는데 동의.그러나 몇몇 경제학자들은 비난의 일부를FRB에 돌림. Lonski는 연준이 금리를1%까지 내릴 필요가 있었냐고 질문.연준의 낮은 금리는 미국 주택경기 과열에 기여

 

Three-quarters of the economists – 40 of 54 who responded -- said they believe interest rates would be at the same level today if Mr. Greenspan were still chairman of the Fed instead of Ben Bernanke. Nine said rates would be lower now, while five said rates would be higher now.

응답자의 대다수(40/54)는 그린스펀이 의장직을 계속 수행했어도 금리가 지금과 같을 것으로 봄. 9명은 더 낮을 것으로, 5명은 지금보다 더 높을 것으로 봄

 

Mr. Greenspan has roiled the markets this month with his prediction that slowing growth in corporate profit margins means that the risk of recession is greater than many believe. Amid the stir Mr. Greenspan caused, about a quarter of the economists said he should refrain from making public comments about the economy, while the rest said he should speak his mind. "I'd prefer more Greenspan commentary, not less," said Bruce Kasman at JP Morgan Chase. The economists were about evenly split on his assessment of profit margins.

그린스펀 전의장은 기업 이익(corporate profit margin)증가가 둔화되는 것을 볼 때 일반적으로 생각되는 것 보다 경기침체 우려가 더 크다고 전망함으로써 시장을 혼란에 빠뜨렸음.이런 와중에 다수 전문가들은 그가 공개적인 발언을 하는 것을 자제해야 한다고 주장.반면 일부에서는 그가 자신의 주장을 공개할 필요가 있다고 찬성.그린스펀의 경제 평가(경기침체 등)에 대한 의견은 거의 반반으로 갈려 있음

 

Among other findings in the survey:

 

• Just under half of the economists said they expect the economy to get better over the next 12 months, while 27% expect it to get worse and 22% think it will stay the same. In the latest WSJ/NBC poll, 49% of Americans said they expect the economy to remain the same, while 31% said they expected things to get worse and just 16% said they expect improvement. The economists are also more optimistic about the stock market. Three-quarters of the economists expect stocks to rise. Less than half of Americans feel the same way.

 

• Just 17 of the 60 economists surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to move the fed-funds rate from the current level of 5.25% by June. On average, the economists expect a quarter-point cut by December.

 

• Inflation forecasts were moved slightly higher, with consumer prices expected to rise, on average, 1.8% in May and 2.5% in November compared with earlier forecasts of a 1.6% and 2.4% increase, respectively. A possible contributor may be oil prices, which are now expected, on average, to be $59.26 a barrel in June compared to a forecast of $57.98 in the February survey and $59.37 in December, up from $58.72 in the February survey.